South Carolina had a real chance to make history this year. To determine whether former President Donald Trump has any significant opposition and chance to lose the Republican nomination for President. South Carolina is home to the only major opponent left to Trump in the Republican primary, Nikki Haley.
Prior to the election, in response to whether or not she needs to win her home state, former United Nations Ambassador and Governor of South Carolina, Haley said, “I don’t think that necessarily has to be a win, but it certainly has to be better than what I did in New Hampshire.” While refreshing, her optimism ignores reality.
If she loses South Carolina her campaign will, in the eyes of the public, be over. South Carolina is her home state and was the most important Republican primary election in the entire country. If Haley can not win her home state, voters have one more reason to not vote for her. If her own former constituents can’t see her in the Oval Office other voters will look at the results and could come to the same conclusion. Thus, Haley’s campaign will lose all of its momentum.
In February the vote occurred, Trump got nearly 60% of the vote and won all but three of the forty-six counties in the state. Haley lost the county she represented in the South Carolina house in a landslide. While it was unlikely that a win in South Carolina could change the primary to the same degree for Haley as it did Biden, it could have been an important step at levying attacks and gaining credibility in her race against former President Trump and his more successful campaign.
The statistics prior to the vote, supported that Haley had a real chance to win in South Carolina. She had a proven track record of defeating the odds in her home state even when starting as only a little-known state house member. She ran for governor against several high profile candidates including United States Representative Gresham Barrett; State Attorney General, Henry McMaster; and Lieutenant Governor, André Bauer. In that primary, she ended up winning the plurality of the vote, 49%, and then 65% of the vote, in a runoff election against Barrett.
But this election was the most important one she has ever faced in South Carolina. This is life or death for her campaign. Haley hasn’t won any state or territory in the primaries yet. South Carolina could have changed the tide of the election as it did for President Biden in 2020, which helped save Biden’s campaign.
Her loss is a death sentence for her campaign, while she still remained in the race many are jumping ship. Since the South Carolina primary, Haley has faced one of her worst performances yet. Haley’s campaign is still going though, but her long shot bid just became even more impossible.
